Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.
Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist
Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.
In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of documents might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.
Security Guarantees and International Support
“The plan involves five documents. Several pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.
On Monday, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or what would happen if Moscow sought to capture more land following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.
Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, including through operating inside Ukraine.”
However, they did not suggesting these measures would serve as guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.
Kremlin Response and Land Issue
On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not seen the details of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept troops from NATO member states operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”
The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts continues to be the issue of land. One proposal centers on Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.
The US negotiation team, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security formations rather than the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.
“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Absolutely,” said President Zelenskyy.
Next Steps and Possible Scenarios
The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.
“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.
“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he added.
